Los 50 mejores agentes libres de 2021

Bienvenido al ranking de los 50 mejores agentes libres de FanGraphs. En años anteriores, Dave Cameron o Kiley McDaniel fueron responsables de esta contribución anual. Este año tomé las riendas con el apoyo de mis compañeros.

A continuación, proporcioné estimaciones de contratos y clasificaciones de los mejores agentes libres del invierno, así como desgloses basados ​​en el mercado para los 25 mejores jugadores. Mientras tanto, una combinación de Ben Clemens, Brendan Gawlowski, Jay Jaffe, Eric Longenhagen, Rachael McDaniel, Dan Szymborski y Jon Tayler ha proporcionado los desgloses más centrados en el jugador que están destinados a proporcionar contexto para todos los jugadores en ese momento de su carrera.

Los jugadores se clasificarán en el orden que yo prefiera. A menudo, este orden sigue exactamente los valores generales del contrato que tanto Cantidad como yo proyectamos para ellos, pero no siempre. Todos los montos en dólares son garantías estimadas para el jugador. Muchos jugadores podrían terminar con contratos de un año que incluyen una opción de equipo por un segundo año, pero solo los años garantizados esperados y los dólares se enumeran a continuación. Todas las proyecciones son proyecciones de Dampfer 2021, con la excepción de Ha-seong Kims, ZiPS 2021.

Algunos jugadores tienen que tomar decisiones pendientes de exclusión voluntaria o de opciones de equipo. Actualizaremos los perfiles a continuación para reflejar cualquier cambio relevante tan pronto como tengamos conocimiento de ellos. La lista a continuación también incluye varios jugadores que probablemente recibirán una oferta calificada. La cantidad de QO para esta temporada es de $ 18,9 millones. Los equipos deben hacer estas ofertas dentro de los cinco días posteriores al final de la Serie Mundial. Los jugadores tendrán 10 días adicionales para decidir si lo aceptan. No está claro si los equipos reducirán este tipo de ofertas este invierno por temor a que más jugadores de lo habitual decidan contratarlos y traten de reingresar a la mano libre en un clima más seguro en la próxima temporada baja. J.T. Realmuto y George Springer parecen ser garantías para rechazar tales ofertas, y es probable que Trevor Bauer y Marcus Semien también lo hagan. Marcell Ozuna no puede QO después de uno el año pasado.

Para obtener una lista completa de los agentes libres de este año, actualizada para incluir firmas actuales y resultados de crowdsource para los jugadores cuyas ofertas preguntamos, visite nuestro Rastreador de agentes libres.

La clase de agentes libres del año pasado fue dirigida por Gerrit Cole. Stephen Strasburg y Anthony Rendon se asociaron con él para obtener garantías por un total de más de $ 800 millones. El mercado de este invierno debería estar tibio. La incorporación de Mookie Betts, que parece un gran negocio para los Dodgers, fue una gran parte de la acción que podríamos haber visto en los próximos meses. Si bien la clase de este año no es tan fuerte como la de 2019, la cantidad de contribuyentes potencialmente sólidos supera los 50 jugadores enumerados aquí. Los lanzadores experimentados como Jake Arrieta, Anthony DeSclafani, Mike Fiers, Jon Lester, Homer Bailey, Brett Anderson, Aníbal Sánchez y Cole Hamels no pasaron el corte. Martín Pérez podría sumarse a esa lista si los Medias Rojas optan por no tomar su opción. Se excluyeron jugadores de cuadro sólidos como Freddy Galvis, Marwin González, Jonathan Villar y Enrique Hernández, al igual que los jardineros Kevin Pillar y Yasiel Puig, CJ Cron y Mike Zunino, así como una variedad de relevos como Sean Doolittle, Greg Holland, Jake McGee y Justin Wilson, Shane. Greene, Tommy Hunter, Darren O’Day y Jeremy Jeffress.

Es probable que a los jugadores anteriores se les unirá un grupo de colaboradores sólidos después de la fecha límite del 2 de diciembre para firmar contratos con los jugadores arbitrales. La temporada pasada, Cron, Kevin Gausman, Cesar Hernandez, Pillar, Blake Treinen y Taijuan Walker estuvieron entre los jugadores que se encontraron como agentes libres después de una no licitación.

La pandemia de COVID-19, la pérdida de ingresos de un 2020, se jugó en gran medida en las gradas sin fanáticos, y las pérdidas potenciales en 2021 darán forma a la mano libre este invierno. Todos esperan una temporada baja fea en lo que respecta a los gastos y la actividad del equipo, pero la pandemia por sí sola no explica la forma del mercado de este año. Siempre habría una caída significativa en las nóminas en 2021 a medida que los propietarios de los equipos se preparaban para el final del convenio colectivo actual. Los mercados tibios después de las temporadas 2016 y 17 dejaron solo a nueve jugadores bajo contrato para el próximo año en esas temporadas bajas. Incluso hace dos temporadas bajas, solo hay 13 contratos firmados por agentes libres de este año que aún están vigentes para 2021, y solo cinco van más allá de la próxima temporada. A medida que los contratos grandes han expirado, los más pequeños han tomado su lugar y es probable que la nómina haya caído alrededor de 500 millones de dólares. Al frente Consideración de la pandemia. Si los equipos continúan recortando el gasto, como se esperaba, un aumento significativo en el número de no licitaciones junto con garantías de manos libres más bajas podría reducir aún más los recortes esperados.

Aun así, los propietarios del equipo están en una posición única para hacer frente a los efectos de la pandemia. Incluso si tomamos los reclamos recientes de la liga de $ 3 mil millones en 2020 al valor nominal, distribuir esas pérdidas durante los próximos 30 años con un interés del 3% resultaría en pagos de solo $ 5 millones por equipo por año. Rob Manfred anunció recientemente que los equipos ahora deben colectivamente más de $ 8 mil millones en deuda (una cifra que ha llegado a solo $ 13 millones por equipo con un interés del 3% durante 30 años). Sin embargo, se olvidó de mencionar que ese número es solo alrededor del 15% de los valores de la franquicia del equipo, o de diferenciar cuál de esas deudas se usó para financiar los costos operativos de 2020, como la nómina, y qué se usó para gastos planificados como el desarrollo de propiedades se utilizó cerca de los parques locales del equipo. La deuda no siempre es mala. De hecho, los propietarios pueden utilizar la deuda y los pagos que se deriven de ella para compensar las ganancias, aumentar funcionalmente su capital con menos inversión y liberar su dinero para otros usos. Pero lo que los propietarios pueden y lo que pueden hacer será Muchas veces, son cosas diferentes y los equipos han recortado la nómina en situaciones que son mucho menos graves, con muchas menos disculpas. Los dueños del equipo han dejado pocas dudas sobre sus intenciones este invierno, ya que ya han impulsado los despidos en la oficina principal para seguir un draft amateur reducido y la contracción planificada de las ligas menores. La incertidumbre sobre los ingresos de 2021, el estado futuro de la pandemia y la falta de un convenio colectivo más allá de la próxima temporada probablemente resulten en un invierno muy feo para la cosecha de agentes libres de este año.

El extremo superior del mercado podría moverse con bastante rapidez, pero la fecha límite inminente para ofertas no reveladas, así como los equipos que pueden estar tratando de que los jugadores reduzcan la nómina en 2021 dada la incertidumbre de los ingresos, podrían permitir que algunos clubes lo hagan. inspirar a esperar a los agentes libres. Si bien el panorama general es bastante sombrío esta temporada baja, los equipos emprendedores tendrán la oportunidad de mejorar significativamente y posicionarse bien para la temporada 2021 y más allá.

Ahora llegamos al ranking. – CE

Toma de Craig
El receptor de los Filis hizo poco para restar valor a su valor en la acortada temporada 2020, y con Mookie Betts firmando una extensión en Los Ángeles, es claramente el mejor agente libre disponible. Los Filis ciertamente podrían beneficiarse de traerlo de regreso, pero no debería faltarle pretendientes, con algunos rivales de la División Este de la Liga Nacional y quizás los Yankees posiblemente en la mezcla con grandes presupuestos y una necesidad o necesidad de receptores.

Notas del jugador
Las principales características de la carrera de Realmuto hasta ahora son que es bueno en todo y aún encuentra formas de mejorar. Sin detenernos demasiado en sus estadísticas de 2020, no deberíamos mencionar los máximos de la carrera en BB%, ISO, OBP, slugging y velocidad de salida. Defensivamente, no hay agujeros en su juego. Es un gran enmarcador, y cuando la liga de repente le quita esa alfombra de debajo de los pies, sigue siendo un bloqueador fantástico y la peor pesadilla de un corredor de bases. A la edad de 30 años, los equipos deben alinearse para firmar la piedra angular del agente libre en el mercado. Es posible que nunca llegue a ser uno de los mejores jugadores del juego. Con suerte, el contrato de nueve dígitos puede aliviar el dolor. – BG

Toma de Craig
Si bien Kris Bryant es el ejemplo más famoso de manipulación del tiempo de servicio en los últimos tiempos, podría decirse que Springer ha sido el más lesionado de la práctica. Después de rechazar una extensión antes de la temporada 2014, estuvo retenido en las menores durante algunas semanas y casi no se perdió de convertirse en agente libre al final de la temporada pasada. Probablemente habría tenido más de $ 200 millones en el frenesí de los agentes libres el año pasado, pero dada su edad, cumplió 31 en septiembre y el aumento de gasto esperado este invierno, tiene que conformarse con algo más cercano a eso. es la mitad de esta cantidad.

Notas del jugador
Si bien muchos de sus compañeros de equipo de los Astros vieron disminuir sus estadísticas ofensivas luego del escándalo de robo de señales del equipo, Springer avanzó como si nada hubiera pasado y produjo números que igualaron el resto de su excelente carrera hasta la fecha. La mala conducta de Houston llevará a muchos ejecutivos de negocios a escudriñar los números de Springer con un peine fino. Lo que encontrarán es un jugador con una excelente disciplina récord (estuvo en el tercio superior de los jugadores calificados en la tasa de strike la temporada pasada con solo 17.1%) y rendimiento (su ISO de .275 fue 20 en el mismo grupo), el Slots juega fácilmente en cualquier alineación. Cada comprador también obtiene una sólida defensa en el mediocampo y una velocidad superior a la media. Un factor limitante contractual mucho más probable será la edad: Springer cumplió 31 años en septiembre. Pero sin duda es el mejor jardinero completo que existe, y cualquier competidor con un agujero en el medio debería estar encima de él. – JT

Toma de Craig
Bauer había dicho anteriormente que solo estaría interesado en contratos de un año en la agencia libre, pero su agente se retractó de esa declaración en el otoño. Cuando comencé este proceso, calculé que Bauer obtendría un contrato de un año de $ 26 millones con una oferta calificada que reduciría su valor si insistía en un contrato de un año. Dado su deseo previamente declarado de probar continuamente el mercado, un contrato con una opción de exclusión o dos podría ser un compromiso potencial, pero uno que podría reducir un poco el valor general del acuerdo.

Notas del jugador
La temporada de Cincinnati puede haber terminado con decepción, pero Bauer no tiene que lamentar su producción en el campo. El diestro fue impredecible después de unirse a los Indios en un acuerdo de fecha límite de tres equipos en 2019, pero borró cualquier recuerdo duradero de esa temporada al lanzar uno tan bueno como su ruptura en 2018. De hecho, diría que 2020 fue mejor para Bauer, ya que no necesitaba repetir la tasa de 0.46 HR / 9 de 2018 para volver como un verdadero contendiente Cy Young. Estableció los récords de su carrera tanto en huelgas como en boletos y solo tendrá 30 en la temporada 2021.

Sin embargo, la situación contractual de Bauer no es sencilla. Ocasionalmente ha expresado su deseo de ir de año en año, aunque su agente dijo recientemente que estaba abierto a acuerdos de varios años. Y aunque estoy convencido de su récord de juego, estoy menos seguro de que pueda evitar el dolor de cabeza ocasional para su nuevo equipo. Si bien probablemente no impide que un club lo firme, ha estado en el centro de varios brotes conocidos, desde lanzar furiosamente una pelota al medio campo mientras aún estaba con Cleveland hasta una serie de incidentes desagradables en las redes sociales con Aficionados. Y sus comentarios sobre el uso de alquitrán de pino y la velocidad de giro sorprendieron a su propia velocidad de giro de 2020. Aun así, es el mejor lanzador agente libre que existe y es probable que le paguen de esa manera. – DS

Toma de Craig
Después de una temporada de ruptura en 2019, Semien realmente podría haber usado un año completo como trampolín para la mano libre. Su 91 wRC + puede parecer un paso atrás a la buena, pero no excelente, versión 2018 de Semien, pero después de las horribles dos primeras semanas de la temporada, su 133 wRC + se mantiene bien por el resto del camino (incluidos los playoffs). con su campaña 2019. Semien es un buen jugador, pero con Didi Gregorius y Andrelton Simmons también en esta clase de agentes libres y Francisco Lindor, Javier Báez, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager y Trevor Story, que se presentan en la próxima temporada baja, el El mercado de semien puede ser bastante limitado y permitir que algún equipo afortunado obtenga una ganga.

Notas del jugador
Semien ha sido séptimo en WAR entre los torpederos de las grandes ligas desde 2016 (cuarto desde 2017), y los jugadores que lo rodean en esa lista tienen o serán libres para elegir. Además de traer habilidades ofensivas premium en algún lugar nuevo, el contrato de Semien será un precursor interesante de la enorme clase de torpederos con talento similar para agentes independientes entre 2021 y 2022 cuyos contratos se firmarán al otro lado de una controvertida negociación de convenio colectivo.

Produjo una línea 2020 mediocre – .223 / .305 / .374 con una disminución del% de golpes fuertes y una disminución de la velocidad de salida promedio – que puede descartarse torpemente debido al tamaño pequeño de la muestra y el comienzo abrupto de la temporada, así como su inclinación a fines de agosto. . Cuanto más tiempo estuvo Semien alejado de esta lesión, mejor golpeó, bateando .211 / .341 / .366 (104 wRC +) durante el tramo de tres semanas de septiembre entre su regreso y el final de la temporada antes de convertirse en un .371 rodó la línea de playoffs /.450/.571. Esa carrera dominante al final del año hace que sea más difícil decidir si la actuación digna de Jugador Más Valioso de Semien en 2019 también podría haber sido una anomalía, ya que ha sido un bateador promedio de la liga más adelante en su carrera, aunque con una consistencia notable.

Pero el bateador promedio que puede jugar como campocorto es un jugador muy valioso. Puede haber diferencias en la industria en términos de las capacidades de defensa de Semien. Sus métricas defensivas (DRS, UZR) sugieren que ha sido un guante por encima del promedio en los últimos años, pero las calificaciones visuales son bastante mediocres, y posiblemente un rol 2B / 1B similar a DJ LeMahieu esté en el otro extremo de su negocio. Es probable que un equipo que crea que puede jugar brevemente por un tiempo sea el que lo contrate. – cucharada

Toma de Craig
Después de dos temporadas decentes en St. Louis, Ozuna tuvo que conformarse con un contrato de un año con Atlanta. Ozuna ya no viene con una oferta calificada y ha completado una gran campaña 2020. Debería poder ganar dinero incluso en una temporada baja lenta. Cumplirá 30 en noviembre y su tiempo en los Cardinals puede desanimar a algunos equipos, pero golpea la pelota increíblemente fuerte y los clubes que buscan una gran raqueta no tienen muchas opciones este invierno.

Notas del jugador
Después de una producción mediocre durante dos temporadas en St. Louis, posiblemente debido a problemas en el hombro derecho y una lenta recuperación de la cirugía a fines de 2018, Ozuna tuvo que conformarse con un contrato de 18 millones de dólares por un año con los Bravos. no pudo, no fue mucho mejor. Alcanzó los máximos generales de su carrera con una línea de 0.338 / 0.431 / 0.636, lideró la liga en jonrones (18), bases totales (145) y carreras impulsadas (56) y terminó tercero en wRC + (179). y séptimo en WAR (2.5) mientras que Atlanta ayuda a ganar un lugar en la Serie Mundial. Esta actuación se basó en un perfil que estaba mucho más orientado a los flyballs y una velocidad de carrera de élite que iba de la mano con unas bicicletas de salida superlativas y estadísticas X.

Ozuna no solo llega al mercado después de un buen año de caminar, también es el más joven de las mejores opciones de campo, aproximadamente 14 meses más joven que Springer y tres años y medio más joven que Brantley. Puede haber un poco de preocupación acerca de su defensa (Statcast dice que se está desacelerando y ha bateado designado en 39 de sus 60 juegos en 2020), pero sus métricas en general han estado por encima del promedio, incluso con el error ocasional de escalar paredes de alto perfil. – YY

Toma de Craig
El acuerdo de dos años de $ 24 millones que firmaron los Yankees LeMahieu antes de 2019 fue un gran negocio, pero podría enfrentar otro problema difícil este invierno. Fue genial, pero ahora tiene 32 años, su defensa no es la que era y está jugando en una posición que los equipos no han priorizado. ¿Se aumentará la oferta a más de $ 50 millones cuando Cesar Hernandez y Jurickson Profar estén disponibles por una fracción del costo? Los números de estadísticas de LeMahieu no fueron tan optimistas como sus resultados. Una disminución en el ángulo de salida lo hizo más expuesto a la suerte de la bola golpeada. Por otro lado, Mike Moustakas ganó cuatro años y $ 64 millones hace un año, y LeMahieu es mejor que Moustakas incluso si es un año mayor. Si los Yankees le hacen una oferta calificada de $ 18.9 millones, enfrentará una decisión difícil ya que corre el riesgo de apostar por ofertas de varios años que, a pesar de su reciente éxito, pueden no llegar.

Notas del jugador
Aunque ya había ganado un puñetazo y tres guantes de oro en Colorado, los dos años de LeMahieu en el Bronx fueron una revelación. No solo mostró sus habilidades de contacto de élite (incluida una tasa de golpes del 9,7%, la más baja de su carrera, este año), sino que también se convirtió en una máquina base con cifras de rendimiento impresionantes. La unión de su enfoque opuesto orientado al campo y el corto porche derecho del Yankee Stadium dio sus frutos en 2019-20 en forma de 16 jonrones de la primera división (de un total de 36). Después de terminar segundo en promedio en la Liga Americana en 2019, fue el primer jugador moderno en ganar títulos en todas las ligas en 2020. Su línea de .364 / .421 / .590 también contenía el porcentaje de base más alto de la Liga Americana y un porcentaje de slugging más alto de su carrera.

Si bien un regreso a la raya diplomática tiene sentido para ambos lados, los combates de Gleyber Torres en el campo corto pueden requerir una retirada a la segunda base, y los Yankees que hicieron ruido sobre el ajuste del cinturón pueden querer que se agregue el personal de lanzadores. Dar prioridad. Si bien LeMahieu puede no tener el mismo valor para otros equipos, su guante, versatilidad y habilidades con la raqueta le dan una base sólida. – YY

Toma de Craig
Otra posible oferta de clasificación para los Yankees es Tanaka, de 32 años. El derecho ha sido un abridor consistente, ligeramente por encima del promedio, durante cuatro años. Incluso a su edad, eso podría haberlo llevado a un contrato de cuatro años por $ 50 millones o más. En el entorno actual de garantía de calidad, podría recibir tres años, pero cuatro parece exagerado, lo que significa que si los Yankees le hacen uno, podría aceptar esa oferta.

Notas del jugador
Lo que fue José Bautista para los ajustes de swing, Tanaka fue para lanzar mezclas y alejarse de la recta antes de que se enfriara. Tanaka ha sido el abridor número 2 más consistente en el béisbol desde que llegó a los Estados Unidos. Si pones sus números de 2020 en proporción, tiene un promedio de tres victorias al año, y lo ha hecho mientras se pierde solo un puñado de aperturas. En cualquier caso, ganó cada centavo de los $ 155 millones que le pagaron los Yankees. En un mundo más justo, el joven de 31 años tendría un día de pago similar. Sin embargo, tengo la sensación de que tendrá la suerte de hacer la mitad.

Por supuesto, aquí hay algunas tendencias de bateo. Con los bateadores golpeando la pelota más en el aire, intuitivamente tiene sentido que los lanzadores relativamente suaves como Tanaka sean más propensos a Homer, que fue el caso. Además, por tercer año consecutivo, las raquetas aumentaron su ángulo de salida colectivo contra él mientras lanzaban la pelota incómodamente a menudo. El excelente control de Tanaka le da algo de margen para las moscas grandes, pero si yo fuera un vidente y supiera que la pelota se mantendría jugosa durante muchos años, sospecharía de él. – BG

Toma de Craig
La gran ventaja de Kim en las manos libres es su edad. Con solo 25 años, es media década más joven que la mayoría de los jugadores de esta lista. Si bien tiene una tarifa de reserva, esa cantidad probablemente esté en el rango de $ 10 millones y no sea particularmente onerosa. Está más abajo en esta lista que algunos jugadores con contratos estimados más bajos, ya que no es seguro cómo sus habilidades afectarán a la MLB, pero incluso $ 20 millones adicionales por encima de mi estimación no romperán el banco en cinco o seis años. . Hay menos seguridad que los otros jugadores que lo rodean en esta lista, pero el límite es considerablemente más alto, ya que probablemente gastará todo su contrato en sus veinte años.

Notas del jugador
Kim, de 25 años, es el más rico en herramientas de varios buenos jugadores jóvenes de Kiwoom Heroes. Ha promediado más de 20 jonrones en las últimas seis temporadas, y está robando y dejando su primer año con más bases por bolas que delanteros. Es un palo de 5 pies y 9 pulgadas hecho de dinamita, un corredor plus con un swing arduo que ofrece una patada grande y dramática y un poder de tracción sorprendente.

También es un buen campocorto defensivo con manos y acción promedio, pero gran alcance lateral gracias a su velocidad y su brazo preciso plus-plus. Este es un jugador que está a punto de alcanzar su mejor momento con herramientas físicas atronadoras, incluida la fuerza. También puede ocupar una posición defensiva privilegiada, lo que convierte a Kim en una rareza en el béisbol.

Es muy difícil predecir cómo se transferirán sus habilidades de raqueta a pelota a MLB, ya que incluso los mejores lanzadores de KBO son a menudo ex jugadores más pequeños que estuvieron al margen de la lista de 40 hombres durante su tiempo en los EE. destacado. Kim tiene que hacer un salto de Evel Knievel sobre un cañón de velocidad, desde una liga en la que varios de los mejores lanzadores están en sus 80 superiores o 90 inferiores a una donde el rayo promedio es de 150 km / h. Ha habido jugadores con números de contacto de KBO similares a Kim que se estancaron en la pelota de MLB (Dixon Machado, Andy Marte) o cambiaron de KBO a MLB y no tradujeron (Hyun Soo Kim), pero ninguno de ellos era así. hábil como Kim. Solo al final de su carrera, Yamaico Navarro tuvo una actuación de potencia / velocidad cerca de Kims en KBO y eso fue después de ver lanzar MLB.

Puede que haya un período de sequía temprano para Kim, ya que ve el mejor pitcheo de su vida, pero tendrá un impacto de forma regular si puede adaptarse. – cucharada

Craig’s Take
Der Phillies Shortstop schien wieder in Form zu kommen, nachdem die Operation von Tommy John seine Saison 2019 verlangsamt hatte. Es ist jedoch erwähnenswert, dass seine Austrittsgeschwindigkeit und seine Statcast-Zahlen sein Vergehen als nicht wesentlich anders darstellen als sein letztes Jahr bei den Yankees. Er wird zu Beginn der nächsten Saison 31 Jahre alt. Die Flut von Shortstops, die im nächsten Jahr oder so verfügbar sind, zusammen mit vielen Teams, die bereits Spieler auf der Position etabliert haben, könnte Gregorius eher zu einer Notlösung als zu einem Fixpunkt bei seinem nächsten Vertrag machen.

Spielernotizen
Gregorius setzte letzten Winter auf sich selbst und schloss einen Einjahresvertrag mit den Phillies ab, um seinen Wert nach einem mittelmäßigen Jahr 2019 in der Bronx wieder aufzubauen. Das Glücksspiel funktionierte, als er Zahlen in der Nähe seiner hervorragenden Kampagne für 2018 aufstellte, mit 116 wRC +, die unter qualifizierten Shortstops den 10. Platz belegten. Es überrascht nicht, dass der Linkshänder Gregorius im Citizens Bank Park mit einem .371 WOBA und 131 WRC + zu Hause (sowie sieben seiner 10 Homer) gegen .322 bzw. 100 unterwegs feierte. Das ist etwas, das seine potenziellen Bewerber beachten sollten: Gregorius passt am besten in einen Park, der die Kraft der Linken steigert, da er ein Pull-Happy-Hitter ist, der die Charts für die Ausgangsgeschwindigkeit nicht beleuchtet oder nicht viel läuft. Das, sein Alter (31. Februar nächsten Jahres) und seine außergewöhnliche Verteidigung könnten ihn davon abhalten, einen großen langfristigen Deal zu erzielen, obwohl seine Erholung im Jahr 2020 ausreichen sollte, um ihm das mehrjährige Engagement zu verdienen, das er letztes Jahr verpasst hat. – JT

Craig’s Take
Sicher, er ist älter und seine Verteidigung auf der dritten Basis hat abgenommen, aber Turner kann immer noch treffen. Mit 36 ​​Jahren in der nächsten Saison wird er keine langfristige Verpflichtung eingehen, aber zwei weitere Jahre scheinen vernünftig. Sein Schläger ist gut genug, um ein ausgewiesener Schlagmann zu sein, aber er ist nicht unfähig, das Feld zu spielen. Er wird jede Aufstellung verlängern und es ist unwahrscheinlich, dass er eine Tonne kostet.

Spielernotizen
Der einst nicht ausgeschriebene Met war einer der ursprünglichen Nutznießer der Startwinkelrevolution, und er hat mit den Dodgers einen hervorragenden Lauf hinter sich und eine kombinierte .302 / .382 / .503 (141 wRC +) mit einem vernünftigen Faksimile dieser Linie erreicht 2020 (.307 / .400 / .460). Obwohl seine Leistungszahlen (einschließlich vier Homer und einer ISO von 0,153) in diesem Jahr gesunken waren, waren seine durchschnittliche Austrittsgeschwindigkeit von 90,3 Meilen pro Stunde und seine xwOBA von 0,386 praktisch identisch mit 2019, und er hatte eine xSLG von 0,553, sein fünftes Jahr in Folge darüber. 500. Mit anderen Worten, er hatte Pech.

Das heißt nicht, dass es für die 36-jährige Rothaarige keine großen Bedenken gibt. Turner spielte von 2017 bis 20 in nur 75% der Dodgers-Spiele und erreichte 19 bei 135; Während eine Fraktur des linken Handgelenks im Jahr 2018 die längste Abwesenheit verursachte, haben ihn Kniesehnen- und Leistenbelastungen Geschwindigkeit gekostet und die Dodgers veranlasst, ihn… vorsichtig zu behandeln. Laut UZR hat seine Verteidigung ebenfalls vier Jahre in Folge rote Zahlen geschrieben (-5,5 UZR / 150), und obwohl er diesen Oktober außergewöhnlich war, steht wahrscheinlich eine Zukunft mit mindestens Teilzeit-DH-Dienst auf dem Plan. Trotz eines positiven Tests für COVID-19 könnte er auch während der Feierlichkeiten zur Dodgers ‘World Series diszipliniert sein, obwohl es unwahrscheinlich ist, dass sich dies negativ auf seinen Markt auswirkt, wenn die Bestrafung nicht streng ist. – JJ

Craig’s Take
Ein Pitcher, der keinen Mehrjahresvertrag abgeschlossen hat, ist etwas ungewöhnlich, aber 2020 war eine ungewöhnliche Saison. Stroman war 2019 gut aufgestellt und verbrachte den ersten Teil dieses Jahres damit, sich von einer Wadenverletzung zu erholen. Er hat die Saison im August beendet. Stroman könnte im nächsten Winter einen Einjahresvertrag abschließen und die freie Agentur erneut testen, aber die zusätzliche Sicherheit eines zweiten garantierten Jahres könnte für ihn gut funktionieren, während das Team, das ihn unter Vertrag nimmt, zwei sehr gute Jahre vom Groundball-Spezialisten auf einem relativ niedrigen Niveau erhalten könnte Engagement. Teams ohne gute Infield-Verteidigung müssen sich nicht bewerben.

Spielernotizen
Abgesehen von seinen verletzungsgekürzten Spielzeiten 2015 und 2017 – und natürlich der Saison 2020, aus der er sich abgemeldet hat – war Stroman bemerkenswert konsistent. Sein karrierebester 3.9 WAR im Jahr 2019 war nur ein Dezimalpunkt weniger als in den vergangenen Jahren. Sein Modus Operandi bleibt derselbe: Die Sinker / Slider-Kombination, die ihn zu einem der besten Spieler des Spiels macht, wenn es darum geht, Groundballs zu induzieren, mit vier weiteren Tonhöhen, die er verwenden wird. Er benutzte den Cutter 2019 häufiger als in jedem anderen Jahr zuvor, meistens, wenn er in der Zählung voraus war, um seinen Schieberegler einzurichten. Offensichtlich hat Stroman im Jahr 2020 überhaupt nicht gespielt und sich entschieden, nach einer Verletzung kurz vor dem geplanten Saisonstart auszusteigen. Daher gibt es keine Daten aus diesem Jahr, an denen man arbeiten könnte. Was wir wissen: Er ist noch jung, vermutlich gesund und einer der besten Spieler, wenn es darum geht, schwachen Kontakt herzustellen – ein wertvoller Spieler, den so ziemlich jedes Team aufstellen kann. – RM

Craig’s Take
Brantley wird im nächsten Mai 34 Jahre alt und es gab einige Anzeichen für einen Rückgang seiner Streikrate in dieser Saison. Er ist immer noch ein kontaktfreudiger Schlagmann mit einem guten Durchschnittsdurchschnitt, aber er verbringt weniger Zeit auf dem Feld und könnte in dieser Saison mit seinem 134 wRC + ein bisschen Glück gehabt haben. Er sollte immer noch in der Lage sein, seine Fähigkeiten und Ergebnisse in ein paar Jahre garantierten Geldes umzuwandeln. Wenn Houston jedoch ein qualifizierendes Angebot macht, sollte er es wahrscheinlich annehmen.

Spielernotizen
Brantley folgte seinem hervorragenden Debüt mit dem Astros im Jahr 2019 mit einer starken Saison 2020, obwohl er die meiste Zeit der verkürzten Saison mit einer Verletzung am rechten Quad kämpfte. Nach einer Kollision mit Joe Kelly auf der ersten Basis am 29. Juli drückte die Verletzung zusammen mit Yordan Alvarez ‘Abwesenheit Brantley für die meisten seiner Plattenauftritte aus dem linken Feld und in die DH-Rolle. Im August verbrachte er zwei Wochen auf der IL. Trotzdem gelang es ihm, der drittwichtigste Positionsspieler des Teams zu sein. Mit 33 Jahren ist Brantleys Fähigkeit als Schlagmann zu diesem Zeitpunkt gut etabliert. Wenn er älter wird, wird seine Gesundheit weiterhin ein Problem sein, aber er hat in seinen beiden Spielzeiten mit dem Astros gezeigt, dass er auch durch Verletzungen, begrenzte Spielzeit und einen Rollenwechsel weiterhin produzieren kann. – RM

Craig’s Take
Wie viele qualifizierende Angebote werden die Yankees in dieser Nebensaison machen? Sie haben sich letztes Jahr entschieden, Didi Gregorius keinen zu geben, aus Angst, er würde ihn akzeptieren, und da die Verletzungen Paxtons Saison beendeten, scheint es sehr wahrscheinlich, dass er ein Qualifikationsangebot annimmt, wenn eines gemacht wird. If not, he’ll likely take the best one-year deal on the market and hope a healthy season propels him to a bigger payday a year from now.

Player Notes
A healthy 2020 would’ve had Paxton jockeying with Trevor Bauer to be the top pitcher available this offseason. As is, his trainwreck of a year — one that started with offseason back surgery, saw his fastball lose over three miles per hour of velocity from the year prior, and ended in late August due to a flexor strain in his left elbow, amounting to all of five starts and 20.1 innings with a 6.64 ERA — not only puts him well behind Bauer but also imperils his hope of pulling down a big contract in his first trip to free agency. There’s plenty to like about the southpaw, starting with his wipeout stuff; if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, his 13.2% swinging-strike rate would’ve been 11th-best among all pitchers. But persistent questions about durability make him a hard sell, as does the fact that he turns 32 in November. For the right team that can keep him on the mound and help him find consistency, he could be a bargain, albeit a risky one. – JT

Craig’s Take
Gausman fits the recent trend of Rangers free agent signings of relatively cheap pitchers who might have a little more to offer (see: Mike Minor, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson). That isn’t to say the Rangers will sign Gausman, but the soon-to-be 30-year-old righty is in that mold. After middling results and a non-tender last offseason, Gausman was very good this year with a 32% strikeout rate. His velocity was up, too, though his fastball-splitter arsenal without an effective third pitch does raise some concerns over a longer season.

Player Notes
Gausman has been on quite a journey, from top prospect to workhorse to deadline acquisition to waiver bait to reclamation project. Since being traded by the Orioles at the 2018 deadline, he’s pitched for the Braves, Reds, and Giants. Thanks in part to a substantial rebound in velocity — his 95.1 mph average four-seamer was his highest since 2015, 1.4 mph ahead of his average as a starter in ’18-19 — he turned in a very strong season in San Francisco. While he fell one-third of an inning short of officially qualifying for the ERA title, he ranked sixth among NL pitchers with at least 50 innings in strikeout rate (32.2%) and strikeout-walk differential (25.7%), ninth in FIP (3.09), and tied for 17th in WAR (1.5). His splitter was particularly unhittable, limiting batters to a .106 AVG, .202 SLG, .150 xwOBA and 21.9% swinging strike rate.

After working on a one-year, $9 million deal in 2020, Gausman should be in line for a multiyear pact. He appears to be open to returning to the Giants, as he’s reportedly keen on working with Buster Posey. – JJ

Craig’s Take
There’s one truly elite reliever in this free agent class, and it is Hendriks. I could see the bidding go considerably higher than my estimate. Hendriks is better than Will Smith and Drew Pomeranz and likely won’t have a Qualifying Offer attached. Four years and $60 million wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility in a normal year — he’s that good. It’s hard to see who will be hurt most by teams cutting payroll, but relief pitching at the top isn’t the worst guess.

Player Notes
Hendriks has quietly become one of the best relievers in baseball. From 2015 (his breakout year) on, he’s been the fourth-best reliever by WAR, with much of that value coming in the last two years, when he’s gone from excellent setup man to sub-2.00 FIP monster. He’s never had a big arbitration payout, perhaps because he only had a single save before the start of the 2019 season, but suffice it to say that his $5.3 million salary (pre-pro-rating) is about to go up. He’s already 31, which limits the length of a prospective contract, but there’s legitimately nothing to nitpick about his current form. He set career highs in chase rate, swinging strike rate, and strikeout rate to go along with career lows in walk rate, ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA — I mean, you get the idea, he’s great. He’s the best reliever on the market, and while it’s fair to wonder what might become of him three years down the road, some team will likely pay up for the dominant present and work the future out when it comes. – BC

Craig’s Take
The defense is probably still elite, but the offense has dipped since a pair of five-win seasons in 2017 and ‘18. At 31 years old, Simmons isn’t washed up, but he won’t be in the same demand he would have been a couple seasons ago. He can help a contending team as an everyday starter if healthy, but he’s not likely to play at an All-Star level over the next few years. For any team not yet set at shortstop for next year, though, Simmons should be a very good value.

Player Notes
A few years ago, I would have expected Simmons to hit free agency as the best shortstop on the market. Now, you can make a case for him being as low as the fourth, as he is on our rankings this year.

The power spike he showed in 2017 and ‘18 has largely faded, and in the last two seasons, he’s been a more aggressive hitter, with little to show for it. A decline in offense isn’t an insurmountable obstacle, but there’s also evidence of a defensive swoon. That’s a larger problem, as it’s Simmons’ stellar fielding that has made him a real contributor despite an OPS south of .700. After averaging nearly +30 runs a year by DRS from 2015 to 2018, he dropped to +12 in his shortened 2019 and dipped into the red for the first time in his career in 2020. His UZR shows a similar trend, and Statcast’s Outs Above Average is no more glowing about his 2020.

Simmons is the type of player I expect to be hurt the most in this economic environment thanks to his perceived decline and the significant free agent depth at his position, this year and next. He may be a good bargain for a team, but I expect it’ll mean an unfortunate pay cut for him. – DS

Craig’s Take
The lefty outfielder isn’t a full-time player and it’s hard to know how much that will bring his contract down. He didn’t have a great season, but the sample size was so small that a handful of postseason games easily brought his offensive numbers back above average. He’s one of the younger players on this list, turning 29 years old in April. Pederson should put up good numbers for several years as the strong side of a platoon and he can still play in a corner spot. He’s a good player to have, but isn’t likely to be near the top of teams’ wish lists this offseason.

Player Notes
Pederson’s stellar October, ultimately in service of a Dodgers championship, will probably outshine his struggles in the 2020 regular season in most people’s memories. The 28-year-old had a rough go of it for most of this year, a season he began by almost getting traded to the Angels. Getting most of his plate appearances against right-handed pitching, as one might expect from a left-handed hitter in a platoon role, he posted numbers (a .179/.276/.402 line with an 86 wRC+) that were very near career worsts for that split — the only time he’s struggled that much against right-handers was in his 2014 debut, when he only played 16 games. But aside from this blip in a shortened season, Pederson’s been a solid producer for most of a decade now — and, if nothing else, he can always be relied upon to hit the ball hard. – RM

Craig’s Take
After three years of mostly average baseball combining good defense with below-average offense, Bradley’s bat came alive this season for the first time since 2016. Those offensive numbers in a small sample coupled with a high BABIP and infield hit rate will likely leave front offices feeling skeptical. But there’s no reason to be skeptical of Bradley’s glove, meaning some team with a hole in center field can find a decent starter without much in the way of salary commitment.

Player Notes
Defensively, few if any players can match what Bradley brings to the table. Per Statcast’s Outs Above Average, he was tops among all outfielders this year, and he’s never finished lower than 20th in that stat. The question is whether the glove is good enough to balance out his streakiness at the plate. His season was a success overall, with a 119 wRC+ and a career-best 10.6% walk rate. A lot of that was fueled, though, by a .343 BABIP, as Bradley put up below-average marks in exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and virtually every other peripheral that has to do with success at the plate. (His season line was also greatly boosted by a September during which he hit .326/.423/.562; like I said, he’s streaky.) Still a ground-ball machine in the era of launch angle, Bradley’s 2020 feels like a hard ceiling, and his ‘18 and ‘19 numbers (a 90 wRC+ both years) are more likely what you get. Any team that signs him is doing so first and foremost for the glove; everything else is gravy. – JT

Craig’s Take
A versatile platoon bat, La Stella is best positioned as a utility player making starts across the infield against right-handers. He is valuable in that role, giving regular or semi-regular starters time off with little-to-no drop in production. While that type of player won’t fit on with every team, he’s not likely to command too high of a salary, providing starter-level production at a high-end bench price.

Player Notes
2020 was another solid year for La Stella, who continued to be among baseball’s best at avoiding strikeouts and whiffs. He finished the year with a miniscule 5.3% strikeout rate and a walk rate nearly double that of his 2019 season. He even managed to raise his already-high contact rate. His ability to play a competent if unspectacular second and third base only makes him more appealing, and a team that can give him consistent playing time should only see further improvement, even if he sometimes merits a defensive replacement late in close games. – RM

Craig’s Take
One of these years Cruz’s production will fall off, but it didn’t happen in 2020, though his exit velocity did erode a tad. Until he completely falls off, he’s going to be deserving of an annual eight-figure contract. He’s not likely to get multiple years at this point, but that limits risk for teams. With the potential for there not being a universal designated hitter in 2021, his market won’t be as robust as it could have been, but he should still attract plenty of attention from AL clubs.

Player Notes
Cruz may be the most durable player in baseball, managing to be seemingly impervious to age-related decline.

It’s not often a player on a multi-year contract in his late-30s can actually claim to have been underpaid, but Cruz can. His signing has worked out wonderfully for the Twins, with his 2019 production alone outpacing his two-year, $26 million deal. And he found yet another gear in 2020. Not counting his 31 games in a 2008 cameo, his 164 wRC+ in 2020 was a career-high, beating out his previous best, a 163 mark, all at the tender age of 39. Among players age-35 and older, he’s now eighth all-time in wRC+ and 11th in homers with 176; if he has two more 20-homer seasons left in him, he’ll end up behind just Barry Bonds and Hank Aaron in the latter category.

There are a few reasons for mild concern — both his 2020 zSLG and xSLG agree that he was outperforming his exit velocity numbers — but when aren’t there for a 40-year-old player? Cruz might actually get another two-year contract and again be worth it. – DS

Craig’s Take
Most of May’s numbers aren’t eye-popping, but his 40% strikeout rate in 2020 really jumps out. His velocity has steadily increased over the years, now sitting in the upper-90s. Even at 31 years old, there’s a sense that his best seasons might still be ahead of him. The home runs are a bit frustrating, but if he can keep hitters missing and stay healthy, he’s the second-best reliever in this free agent class.

Player Notes
At a glance, May’s 1.9 HR/9 ratio looks far more alarming than his strikeout surge looks encouraging. Small samples often have a distortive effect though, and that’s the case here as well. While May’s cartoonishly high 21.7% HR/FB ratio will undoubtedly regress in short order, the substantial increase in whiffs he generated looks legitimate. He reared back and found an extra tick on his fastball last season, and hitters missed the pitch more than 20% of the time. Life gets a whole lot easier when your fastball can carry the profile.

Three consecutive seasons of good-if-not-quite-great relief work should put May in line for a multi-year deal worth around $10 million per, give or take how excited front offices are about his four-seamer. The pandemic will likely eat into that figure though, and so it’ll be interesting to see if May values the stability of a longer contract or would rather roll the dice and hit free agency after 2021. As the valedictorian in Kelso High School’s class of 2008, I trust him to arrive at the right answer. – BG

Craig’s Take
After barely pitching for two seasons, Walker acquitted himself pretty well as a starter this year. There isn’t much that stands out about him, but at 28 years old, he is one of the younger free agents in this class. We are now moving into a tier of starting pitchers with considerable question marks due to performance and health. Walker’s age and results separate him slightly from the rest of the pack, but teams will have options when it comes to potential back-of-the-rotation starters at a reasonable cost.

Player Notes
After almost two years on the shelf, Walker’s primary objective was to stay healthy in 2020. Mission accomplished. How teams evaluate his numbers in the context of his injury history will be the $64,000 question. On the one hand, his peripherals are underwhelming. Between a low BABIP, mediocre FIP, middling strikeout rate, and fly ball tendencies, it’s easy to cast him as a No. 4 and look elsewhere for more exciting options.

But pitchers are just a few adjustments from unlocking their potential these days, and there are a couple of things to tinker with here. The first is the split. While most changeups perform well against opposite-handed hitters, Walker’s doesn’t. He might be better served by ditching it and feeding lefties a steady diet of curves and sliders (his behaves like a cutter). Second, for a righty with limited spin and only average velo, Walker has a surprisingly effective four-seam fastball. Given that his sinker mostly gets clobbered, it would seem fruitful to replace most of the latter with more of the former. I suspect that some decision maker somewhere has also been to Walker’s Brooks Baseball page recently; perhaps they too smell a buy-low opportunity. – BG

Craig’s Take
When it comes to performance, Hand trails only Hendriks when it comes to relievers. He was very good in 2019 and great in the shortened season, though the complete lack of home runs allowed likely isn’t repeatable. Hand’s fastball velocity has been in decline for a few years now and he has compensated by using it less, with the slider as his featured pitch. Success there might not last forever. The lefty was placed on waivers by Cleveland; if he goes unclaimed, he shouldn’t have a problem landing a decent contract, and might get more than two years, but he’ll be hard-pressed to get more than $8 million to $10 million annually. But then again, it seems unlikely he goes unclaimed. Right?

Player Notes
His velocity fell for the second consecutive year (it trended up throughout the season) but Hand still struck out more than 30% of opposing hitters for the fifth straight season and had a career-best 2.05 ERA and 1.37 FIP. He’s a funky, low-slot lefty who can throw his trademark curveball for strikes whenever he wants and consistently locate it just off the plate to his glove side for swings and misses.

Aside from some elbow soreness that sidelined him late in 2019 (and perhaps limited his workload throughout that season), Hand has also been remarkably durable for a reliever, pitching in excess of 70 innings every year from 2014 to 2018, some of those in a swingman role. His lower arm slot gives Hand rather pronounced platoon splits, which means he may not be universally deployable in high-leverage situations, but his curveball quality and his ability to execute it consistently should still enable him to be a second or third bullpen banana for the next several years, even if his velocity keeps gradually sliding. Cleveland placed Hand on outright waivers yesterday, where he can be claimed if another team wants to pick up his $10 million option. That’s what the Dodgers paid Blake Treinen this year, so it’s about the going rate for a bullpen arm of this quality. – EL

Craig’s Take
The Twins pitcher bet on himself last offseason by accepting a Qualifying Offer, hoping that a repeat of his 2019 season would land him a big deal. Unfortunately, after just four starts in 2020, the 30-year-old will have to bet on himself again to re-establish his value. Right now, 2019 looks more like an outlier than an indicator of good future performance, but a high-variance team looking to jump into contention next year might make a lot of sense for Odorizzi. He won’t want to go to a team that can’t guarantee him a starting spot, so a hopeful contender might make the most sense if he doesn’t end up back in Minnesota.

Player Notes
ZiPS was a huge fan of Odorizzi going into last offseason, but given the lack of action in recent markets, he gambled that he’d do better by taking the Qualifying Offer and hitting free agency again after 2020 without any draft pick compensation hanging over his head.

Instead, Odorizzi enters the market with new question marks. An intercostal strain (the negative effect of a line drive sent straight to his chest in August) and a blister issue limited Odorizzi to only four games this season. He wasn’t particularly effective in those, three of which came against the Royals, the AL’s 13th-ranked scoring offense. The Twins were extremely careful with him, never letting him get to 80 pitches, though that’s not exactly going to enhance his 2021 salary.

There’s not a great deal of good news in Odorizzi’s profile, but despite the injury issues, he at least didn’t lose velocity. His 6.59 ERA is largely the result of giving up four home runs, a 23.5% HR/FB rate in his 13.2 innings of work. Those long balls were all barrels — he allowed seven in his four games — but given the vagaries of the 2020 season and the injuries he was fighting, I don’t think he’s down in reclamation project territory. – DS

Craig’s Take
Smyly gained a couple miles per hour on his fastball after going to the Giants and used his curve a lot more and to great effect. He also missed a month with a finger injury, averaged about four innings per start, and had his best game of the season on its final day, against a Padres team that was looking ahead to the playoffs. There are some intriguing results to go with an intriguing skill set for the lefty here, but it’s possible Smyly has to shift to relief or short starting stints to keep up his great (but abbreviated) 2020 stat line

Player Notes
Taking a one-year flyer with the Giants, Smyly bounced back nicely in 2020 from his career-worst 2019 season. Despite missing time with a finger strain, he added spin and velocity to all of his pitches, posted a career-best strikeout rate, and was generally extremely effective. Batters whiffed on his pitches more than ever before, though when they did make contact it was often barrelled. It was a quiet season, but a good one, with some interesting developments. Of course, the biggest barrier to success for Smyly historically has been injury, and even in a shortened season he was unable to avoid missing time. – RM

Player Notes
Wong was a victim of COVID-19. Not the direct effects of the disease, mind you (and thank goodness), but the economic devastation it wrought. Before the season was shortened, picking up his $12.5 million option was a no-brainer for the Cardinals; above-average players at up-the-middle defensive positions don’t come cheaply. There were fit issues — with no NL DH guaranteed in 2021, the Cardinals have two spots for Wong, Tommy Edman, and Matt Carpenter — but even if the team had no vacancies, they could have retained and traded him.

There’s no question that Wong is a talented player — he’s been worth more than 2 WAR/600 for the last four years and six of the last seven. Instead, it’s a question of what an average player will cost this offseason, and Wong’s availability implies that we might be looking at some small-dollar contracts. Whoever signs Wong will get a reasonable bat — Steamer projects him for a 103 wRC+ next year — and the best second base defender in the game by pretty much any metric, as shown by his three straight Fielding Bible Awards at the position. What his next team pays for him will go a long way towards setting the market for solid-but-not-spectacular players in this brave new financial world. – BC

Player Notes
After missing the 2015-16 seasons due to labrum surgery, Minor enjoyed a strong three-year run that included ’18-19 seasons spent in the Rangers’ rotation, during which he posted a 3.84 ERA, 4.32 FIP and 6.7 WAR across 365.1 innings and made his first All-Star team. His 2020 season did not go so well; despite a strikeout rate that jumped from 23.2% to 25.9%, his walk and homer rates climbed as well, the former from 7.9% to 8.4%, the latter from 1.30 per nine to 1.75. Even so, where Minor’s ERA rose by nearly two runs (from 3.59 to an unsightly 5.56), his FIP only moved from 4.25 to 4.64. He wasn’t quite as bad as you might believe at first glance.

That said, Minor’s average fastball velocity dropped by a full two miles per hour (from 92.6 to 90.6), and by his own admission, his stuff simply wasn’t the same. His hard-hit and barrel rates both jumped substantially, and led to an August 31 trade to the A’s; he allowed more runs than innings pitched in three of his five appearances (the ones that weren’t against Seattle). Had he hit the market last winter, he’d have easily surpassed his previous three-year, $28 million deal, but that seems unlikely now, even in a relatively thin free agent market. – JJ

Player Notes
The A’s are a very savvy organization, but they overreacted to Treinen’s dud of a 2019 campaign. The Dodgers profited from Oakland’s rashness, as the righty produced a tidy 3.86/3.15/3.47 pitcher slash last season while working hard for a reliever, at least by 2020’s abbreviated standards. Even though his strikeout numbers fell again, everything else looked good: Only 17 relievers allowed a lower average exit velocity last year and just two managed a higher groundball rate. That last point is particularly compelling in a time when the average fly carries to the warning track and one of Max Muncy’s dingers dented the space station. Treinen may never recapture the immortal form he wowed us with in 2018, but he doesn’t need to; the world needs set-up men, too. – BG

Player Notes
A cut on his left thumb and a left lat strain kept Quintana’s 2020 from ever getting off the ground, as he appeared in just four games, three as a reliever, and pitched a mere 10 innings. You could say the same about his Cubs career, which amounted to a 4.24 ERA over three-plus seasons. Fans on the North Side likely won’t look back on his tenure there with any fondness, especially given that he cost the team Eloy Jiménez, and his scattershot years in Wrigley Field make him a free-agent puzzle. Is the man who gobbled up innings and put up 4-WAR seasons with regularity on the South Side still in there? The problem is that Quintana was never someone who racked up strikeouts, nor does he bring top-shelf velocity to the mound. His game has always been predicated on soft contact, but that’s borderline impossible when your fastball gets hit as hard as his has (a .522 slugging percentage against it in 2020). – JT

Player Notes
Imagine a contending team as a meal at a fancy restaurant. You’ve got your main course — chicken à la Acuña with a side of Freeman, or Betts royale garnished with Bellingers, maybe. There’s a fun appetizer, maybe a Fried dumpling or a Kershaw/Buehler purée. In this strained metaphor, Melancon is a well-seasoned side of asparagus. It’s unfair to compare him to food, but it’s my entry, so here we are. He’s a perfectly nice bullpen option, best used as the third- or fourth-best reliever on the team. Want him to appear 60 times and avoid walks while keeping the ball on the ground? He’s the man for the job. Want him to stand athwart the opposing lineup and yell “Stop!” to miraculously wiggle out of the highest-leverage jams? He’s probably not the droid you’re looking for. His fastball lost a tick this year, and teams aren’t bending over backwards to sign relievers without strikeout stuff, but his record of competence is tremendously useful given the number of contending teams that could use bullpen help. – BC

Player Notes
Could Molina leave St. Louis after such a decorated career, a career that many thought would end years ago? He seems determined to catch on somewhere, and as weird as a 38-year-old catcher seems these days, he looks like a roughly average option at the position. His bat has cooled significantly since the 2011-2013 glory days, and his defense has followed suit. Catchers have a low offensive bar to clear, though — catchers as a whole hit .229/.310/.385 this year, good for a 90 wRC+. Even if Molina doesn’t clear said bar, he still adds enough on the defensive side — through framing, blocking, discouraging runners, and hard-to-quantify game calling — that he can continue to hit like his 2020 self and be valuable. Should he leave the Cardinals, one thing that might be harder to manage is his playing time — his status in that locker room is such that he essentially only took days off when he wanted to, which might have been to the detriment of his rate statistics and ability to stay fresh through a long year. On the other hand, backup catchers aren’t exactly known for their great skill, so squeezing 10 extra games out of your workhorse is mighty tempting. He’ll be an interesting puzzle for whichever team signs him — Redbirds or otherwise. – BC

Player Notes
When the Indians signed Hernandez, they basically wanted a player who was more reliable than the declining Jason Kipnis, preferably one they didn’t have to pay much. Hernandez checked both boxes, hitting .283/.355/.408 for 1.9 WAR in 58 games while serving most of the season as the team’s leadoff hitter, all for a mere $6.25 million in pre-pandemic dollars.

There’s no real star upside to Hernandez — though his brief 2020 performance had him surprisingly close to that status — but he’s long been about as dependable a second baseman as you can find. Just how dependable? Since 2015, despite not having a single four-win season, he ranks sixth among second basemen in WAR, less than a win behind Javier Báez. Now admittedly, that ranking casts him in the best possible light as he’s also played the most games of any second basemen over these six seasons, but his health history is part of the package. For a contending team that ought to have a real interest in overpaying for an average or slightly above-average second baseman, a middle infielder who has had only one IL trip in a half-decade is worth a look. Kolten Wong’s entry into free agency possibly complicates matters for Hernandez, but I could see the Cardinals signing him for less per year than Wong’s $12.5 million option, which they just declined.

Hernandez has real value to a contending team, but I’m not sure it’ll manifest in a big payday. – DS

Player Notes
Quality catchers aren’t easy to come by these days, and for teams that can’t afford to offer a nine-figure deal to Realmuto and are loath to invest in a 38-year-old Molina (or simply aren’t the Cardinals), McCann offers a reasonable alternative. Admittedly, his track record for above-average play isn’t a long one; he was 0.7 wins below replacement as recently as 2018, and netted -0.1 WAR from 2014-18, that while hitting for just a 75 wRC+. Even so, his 3.8 WAR over the past two seasons is tied for fifth among catchers, while his 116 wRC+ is eighth.

Underlying his recent performance are substantial improvements on both sides of the ball. From 2015-18, McCann posted an average exit velocity of 87.9 mph and a .304 xwOBA, but he’s up to an average of 90.2 mph over the past two seasons, with a .328 xwOBA. Meanwhile, he posted his first above-average framing numbers this year (2.3 runs, up from -9.0 by our data, and from -8.0 to 1.5 via Baseball Prospectus). He’d be an upgrade for several teams. – JJ

Player Notes
Colomé’s release point was less scattered in 2020 and he rode his well-located cutters to an incredible 0.81 ERA. That’s obviously not sustainable, and Colomé does have some regression indicators: He stranded 86% of runners, a career high, and his strikeout rate dipped to a career-low 17.8%. But while Colomé struck out fewer hitters this year, he also induced much weaker contact than usual. His groundball rate went up substantially (45% career, 52% in 2020), while he set career lows in several other marks (average opponent exit velocity, hard hit %, and barrel %, plus he had zero home runs allowed). I think Colomé hides the ball well and creates such tough angle with that cutter that, so long as he executes pitches with this newfound level of consistency, such a pitch-to-contact approach is viable because his cutter is so nasty.

And Colomé, who’s built like a tank, has been remarkably durable. He hasn’t been on the IL since 2016 (he was day-to-day with back spasms late this September) and has thrown at least 60 innings every full season since then. He’s a fairly low-risk late-inning arm who should be the second or third best reliever on a contender. – EL

Player Notes
The former number one prospect struggled mightily with Oakland in 2019, but fared far better in his first year in San Diego, setting career highs in batting average (.278), on-base percentage (.343), and wRC+ (111). Hitting the ball on the ground with more frequency actually paid off, as he cut his infield fly ball rate from 18.9% to 8.5%, and legged out seven infield hits, more than double his 2019 total.

As in 2018 (but not ’19), the switch-hitting Profar hit lefties and righties about equally well. He also showed off his versatility. After starting the season as the Padres’ regular second baseman, he moved to left field to cover for the absence of Tommy Pham, and stayed there while Jake Cronenworth put in a Rookie of the Year-caliber season at the keystone. Cronenworth’s presence and the Padres’ outfield depth may preclude a return to San Diego, but this going-on-28-year-old should find some team for whom he can contribute in multiple roles in 2021. – JJ

Player Notes
Score one for the Royals here, a phrase I’m not prone to saying all that often. Rosenthal’s initial return from Tommy John surgery in 2019 was a disaster; his fastball recovered its velocity, but his control reached near Steve Blass/Mark Wohlers levels of sadness. 2020 was a completely different story. Rosenthal’s heater was much better located, and the slider that he had been working on pre-TJ showed nasty vertical bite, turning it into a real weapon. He was considerably less sharp in the playoffs, and nobody’s going to pay him as if he’s an elite closer, but his contract this winter should still be a nice raise after having to sign a minor-league deal last offseason. – DS

Player Notes
What a difference a year makes. Yates would have been a hot ticket after 2018 and 2019, when his splitter simply overmatched opposing hitters; they swung at it too often, whiffed on 50% of those swings, and mostly put it straight into the ground when they did manage to make contact. That singular split, along with a stereotypically back-spinning four-seamer, drove a 41.6% strikeout rate without too much loud aerial contact, a lethal combination. His 2019 numbers, in particular, were absurd: a 1.19 ERA, 1.30 FIP, and 2.25 xFIP while striking out 15 batters per nine.

Alas, 2020. Yates threw only 4.1 innings before bone chips in his elbow required surgery, and he missed the remainder of the season. At 33 and with an uncertain recovery timetable, he’ll represent an educated gamble at best for the team that signs him, and front offices figure to be extremely conservative with their spending this offseason, to put it mildly. A year ago, I’d have expected a big-budget team to give him an incentive-laden two year deal, and that might still happen, but the market feels tenuous in a way that someone in 2019 experiencing Yates’ dominance wouldn’t believe. – BC

Player Notes
Editor’s note: The Yankees have declined Gardner’s $10 million option, though Jon Heyman reports they may consider bringing him back on a new deal.

Thinking of Gardner wearing anything other than pinstripes feels strange. He’s been a fixture in the Yankees’ lineup for more than a decade, a competent defender with enough patience and bat control to offset a power deficit. Those skills aren’t quite up to their old level — age will do that — but he can still add value as a fourth outfielder. That’s valuable on a team with outfielders who would ideally spend some time at DH; most teams are hoping for mediocrity out of their fourth outfielder, and Gardner comfortably clears that bar even at 37. If that’s how teams see him, the Yankees will likely retain his services; he fits their roster well and is clearly comfortable with the franchise. The only question is whether some team will offer him starter money, and it’s a closer question than you’d think. I don’t think it will happen in this risk-averse offseason, but it’s not out of the question. That might lead the Yankees to pick up his $10 million team option (with $2.5 million buyout), which would be a good outcome for all parties. That does raise the question of why they didn’t agree to a longer deal already, but the most likely outcome is still a reunion. – BC

Player Notes
Back when Kluber signed a team-friendly five-year, $38.5 million deal coming off his first Cy Young award, it seemed unimaginable that he would be a free agent this offseason, and that was even more true after he picked up a second trophy in 2017. But with the Rangers apparently uninterested in picking up his $18 million club option, that’s where Kluber finds himself after two seasons ruined by injury. With his 35th birthday due not long after next season’s Opening Day, Kluber faces the unpleasant prospect of being a veteran on a one-year pillow contract. He doesn’t rely on blowing batters away at the plate, and I’m confident that if his curveball still bites, he’ll be fine if healthy. I’m just not confident that he will be, and I don’t expect many teams will be in the mood to roll the dice either.

Which teams are the best fits for Kluber? MLB.com’s TR Sullivan reported that the Rangers might be interested in a reunion on a reworked (and less expensive) deal, but if that doesn’t pan out, I think he’ll prioritize going to a team with excellent postseason odds, a ring having eluded him during his Cleveland years. The Dodgers in particular seem like a good fit; the team was linked to him in trade rumors last winter and the organization loves filling out the pitching staff with reclamation projects. – DS

Player Notes
Is your bullpen bad? Do you wish it had a little more depth, someone you could call on in the seventh inning without requiring the manager to watch the game with his hands over his eyes? Soria is exactly the reliever you’re looking for. He’ll be 37 next season, and his fastball velocity will probably slip a little lower next year — inevitable ravages of time and all that. Who cares, though? Soria has never blown people away with his heater, and it hasn’t mattered. He’s been Mister Consistency, particularly for a reliever, and he’s doing his part to adapt to the changing league; he’s throwing more sliders and fewer curveballs these days, a mirror of overall trends. Soria fit perfectly as the third-best reliever in a great bullpen in Oakland, and with the usual caveat that this year’s free agent market is unpredictable, he’ll almost certainly fulfill the same role for another contender next year. The years and dollars won’t be jaw-dropping, but there’s always a market for competent relief work, and Soria is precisely that. – BC

Player Notes
Santana is a player of extremes. He has the 11th-highest walk rate among all hitters this century at a whopping 15.5% career clip, and he was second in the majors in walks in 2020, trailing only Bryce Harper. But Santana hit just .199 this season and, for the first time in his career, had below-average offensive production (a 95 wRC+).

There are some indications that he was unlucky. His .212 BABIP was third-lowest in baseball, and while Santana’s not winning any races, that’s still much lower than his career norm, even at his advanced age. His contact quality slipped a little bit but his expected stats on Baseball Savant, which use Statcast data to approximate what the hitter’s line should be based on quality of contact, have him as a .250 hitter with a .450 xSLG, both way above Santana’s actual 2020 output.

He remains a switch-hitting power threat who grinds out tough at-bats, a 1.5 to 2 WAR 1B/DH whose career should see itself extended once the presumptive universal DH is put in place. Oh, and he can really pick it at first. The market for this type of 1B/DH performer may be flooded with similar younger players, as first base sluggers (though not with a skillset so extreme) are often the sort who get non-tendered. – EL

Player Notes
Richards is one of those paradoxical signings where, even though you don’t know exactly what you’ll get from him, you also kind of machen. Nobody should be under the illusion that they’re enlisting the hard-throwing righty for 30 starts: He hasn’t hit that number, or topped 80 innings for that matter, since 2015. Even when he’s able to pitch, the ghost of the injured list has front-row seats to his every outing.

So, why sign this guy? Well, whether you’re getting 30 innings or 50, or you hit the lottery and get 100, odds are that he’ll pitch well. Over the past five years, he’s only chucked 200 frames, but in that time, he recorded a 3.86 FIP, 119 ERA+, and 205 strikeouts, good for about 3.5 WAR. Condensed into a single season, that kind of production is worth more than $30 million a year on the open market. He’ll make just a fraction of that, of course, and he’ll fit perfectly on a squad with a bevy of competent but underwhelming options in the back of the rotation. And who knows? Maybe someone will win the lottery. – BG

Player Notes
Few things were easier to predict than Porcello ending up with the Mets in 2020; everything about Rick Porcello at this stage in his career radiates powerful (if not lethal amounts of) Mets energy. Truthfully, there wasn’t much to recommend Porcello as a free agent last year. That remains the case this winter, as he once again slogged his way to an ERA above 5.00 with mostly gnarly peripherals, including a 6.4% swinging-strike rate that ranked 70th out of the 71 starters with 50 or more innings thrown last season. The righty’s main selling point is his durability: He hasn’t thrown fewer than 172 innings or made fewer than 28 starts in a 162-game season since 2010. That has some value, particularly for rebuilding or tanking teams that need a veteran who can soak up innings in a rotation of youngsters. So long as you don’t particularly care how good those innings are, Porcello is your guy. – JT

Player Notes
In both of Shoemaker’s two seasons with the Blue Jays, he pitched exactly 28.2 innings. In 2019, many of those innings were dominant. 2020 was more of a struggle. But in both campaigns, Shoemaker was, as has been so unfortunately frequent in his career, hampered by injury. The 2019 injury was a freak accident; the shoulder inflammation of 2020 is more worrying when thinking about the future. He did return in time to throw three commanding frames for the Jays against the Rays in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, showing the sparkle that he’s capable of. But Shoemaker is 34 now, and he hasn’t cleared 15 starts in a season since 2016. His future, at this point, seems uncertain. – RM

Player Notes
Editor’s note: The Yankees have declined Happ’s $17 million option.

Outside of a handful of bad starts to begin the season and a much-discussed ALDS meltdown, the veteran lefty posted a pretty solid 2020 campaign, managing to avoid the extreme homer-proneness that plagued his 2019. At 38, Happ is who he is at this point (in 2020, that meant a 3.47 ERA and a 4.57 FIP), working primarily with his four-seam fastball, though he mixed in his sinker more frequently this season to positive effect. His velocity has been declining year over year, as one might expect from someone his age, but only by ticks. He has shown that he can still eat innings, never failing to complete at least five innings in any of his regular-season starts after August 16. – RM

Player Notes
Ray has been one tweak away from dominance for basically his whole career. He has the whiff-inducing fastball, plus slider, and where’d-it-go curveball to support his career 28.6% strikeout rate, a top-10 mark among starters since he debuted. On the other hand, he never quite mastered control; he’s the only one among those 10 with a double-digit walk rate. In an abbreviated 2020, the free passes sunk him — a career-low zone rate combined with a career-low chase rate resulted in a ghastly 17.9% walk rate, which in turn led to a 6.62 ERA and 6.50 FIP. He’s still an intriguing arm — heck, he struck out five Rays in three postseason innings this year — but after six years of maybe that has never materialized, he’s more reclamation project than solid starter at this point. Whichever team signs him — and he should sign a reasonable deal, because that strikeout rate is tantalizing — will do so with a plan to improve his command and double down on his best qualities. Maybe it’s a reworked delivery, or a cutter to give him more pitches to attack the zone — but it will be some tweak, and it will focus on throwing strikes, long his greatest weakness. – BC

Player Notes
Wainwright might be auditioning for a future career in broadcasting, but he’s still plenty capable on the mound. His average fastball hasn’t cracked 90 since 2016, but he’s compensated by leaning ever harder on his cutter and signature 12-6 curveball. He’s never thrown the curve more than he did in 2020 — roughly 38% — but he’s still missing bats and drawing chases with it as often as ever. In fact, his 38.8% curveball chase rate in 2020 is the highest of his illustrious career. When that career continues, let’s not kid ourselves, it will probably be with the Cardinals. The one-year, $5 million deal he signed last year is a good starting point for what he might stand to make this year, and given his history with the Cardinals, it seems unlikely some team could blow him out of the water with $7 million and win his services. Wainwright seems to genuinely love pitching in St. Louis, so I’d expect another one-year deal in the same range and another year of competence and lollipop curves from the man who is so famous for the hook that his Twitter handle is Uncle Charlie. – BC

Player Notes
Grossman has been around for a while as a switch-hitting left fielder with a great approach, but because he’s lacked power he mostly produced like a fourth or fifth outfielder until 2020, when he slugged .521 against lefties. Did something change that might indicate Grossman will continue to do real damage? Maybe. He has made several swing tweaks over the last three years or so. In 2020, he had a more dramatic leg kick. He also swung more often at offspeed and breaking stuff this season, but he’s remained a low-ball hitter who avoids swinging at stuff at the top of the strike zone.

Is it likely that he slugs at a similar clip against lefties every year? Probably not, but there have been real and relevant changes to Grossman’s swing and approach, both of which seem to have had a substantive impact on his ability to hit for power, which has been his bugaboo for eight years. He’s someone’s short-term solution in left field. – EL

Player Notes
If you can play the infield and punish right-handed pitching, you’re going to play in the big leagues for a long time. Miller is yet another in a growing line of veterans whose careers have been extended by some combination of a) the shift enabling infielders with limited mobility to remain viable for longer and b) teams having more versatile players who make bat-only types like Miller rosterable. St. Louis was his fifth team in three seasons. Miller’s days of playing all over the field are probably over but he still hits righties well enough to get one year deal after one year deal until he stops. – EL

Player Notes
Archer didn’t throw a pitch for the Pirates in 2020, as he underwent surgery in early June to try to correct thoracic outlet syndrome. That malady has largely proven to be a career-killer for those who deal with it; coupled with Archer’s horrific 2019 numbers (a 5.19 ERA, 10.5% walk rate, and decreased fastball velocity), it’s a recipe for a quiet winter. Maybe some team is willing to give him a one-year deal with an option for 2022 in the hopes that he can rehab his way back to being the hard-throwing ace he was with Tampa Bay. More likely is a minor league deal with an invite to spring training to see what, if anything, he has left at 32 and coming off one of the worst injuries a pitcher can suffer. Hopefully he gets the opportunity, because it would be a shame for someone as fun and talented as Archer to fall out of the game like that. – JT